A Bleak Midwinter?

The UK Theatre sector has faced a particularly challenging last couple of years, driven by restrictions and lockdowns. But although the effects have been acute for those working in theatre (most particularly freelancers), most theatres as organisations have emerged from the previous stages of the pandemic battered but intact. There have been few instances of venues that closed their doors being unable to reopen them.

This was better than many feared (and, of course, would not have been the case without the funding from central government, such as the Cultural Recovery Fund). There is a risk, however, that this next stage of ‘recovery’ is when the damage is felt. That although things are getting better, they are not getting better enough, fast enough, given what’s gone before.

This report summarises findings from the Cultural Participation Monitor, Audience Finder and elsewhere (for details, see Appendix 1), to look ahead at likely sales for Christmas performances in UK theatres and venues. The overall outlook is not positive.

In brief, we argue that:

• Christmas sales are particularly important for venues.
• They are, and are likely to remain, lower this year than in pre-pandemic years.
• Older audiences are particularly affected and this also reflects longer-term trends.
• This presents a particular risk to venues, most acutely this year, but also looking further ahead.

The Importance of Christmas Sales

Christmas sales are important to venues for many venues for two main reasons: income and reach.

In terms of income, sales across the c. 6 weeks from December to mid January int the pre-pandemic year accounted for almost 1/5th of all sales (twice the level as across the rest of the year on average), based on the Audience Finder ticketing dataset:

The reach is also broader than for most other types of performance and times of year. 43% of respondents to the Cultural Participation Monitor said they had attended panto at least once in the last 3 years (9% in all three years). The equivalent figures were 68% and 13% for those with dependent children under 16. See the ‘Back Light’ report for more details.

As a result, lower Christmas sales affect both venues’ financial and social objectives.

This Year’s Sales

Sales for pantomime and other Christmas shows are likely to be down this year. We can see this from several sources (for details, see Appendix 1):

• Actual sales at present (from Audience Finder)

• Expectation around attendance to pantomime (from the Cultural Participation Monitor, in Wave 4 [Sept-Oct])
• General attitudes to attendance (from the Cultural Participation Monitor, in Wave 5 [Nov]).
• Anecdotal feedback (from our community of partner organisations and events).

All of these point to a significant contraction in pantomime and Christmas sales compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Expected Pantomime Attendance

We're also seeing indications of likely lower attendance at pantos reflected in more specific questions in the Cultural Participation Monitor. We asked people to rate out of ten how likely they were to attend panto this year (with 0 as ‘will definitely not go’ and 10 as ‘will definitely go’). Although 23% or respondents say they attended in a previous typical year2; only 17% rating their likelihood to attend panto this year as 8 or more out of ten (in practice, these self-reported figures are both over-estimates, compared to the 13% of the adult population that had attended panto according to the Taking Part survey 2018/19)3.

General Attitudes to Attendance

We have also seen in the Cultural Participation Monitor that a substantial proportion of the population (40%) are either ‘not comfortable’ or ‘not interested’ in attending at this point (a proportion that has remained fairly constant since February 2021). The proportion is similar for those who attended live events in the 12 months before COVID as well. Based on this, we would expect a similar reduction in the proportion of those attending, event without the specific information about expectations to attend pantomime.

Question: “In terms of attending CULTURAL EVENTS, what best describes how you currently feel?”:

Older Audiences are Particularly Affected

The evidence suggests that it’s particularly older audiences who are less likely to book for pantos and other Christmas shows.

Those aged 65+ are less likely to say that they will attend panto this year:

This reflects their lower willingness to attend (as well as their lower likelihood to have dependent children in the household):

We can show that the difference is specific to COVID responses, by looking at the likelihood to attend, by age, of those who said that they did attend panto in the past three years. Previous panto attenders aged 65 or over were much less likely to say that they were likely to attend this year than those under 65 (on the same rating scale out of ten):

General Sales to Date in 2020/21

Audience Finder collects sales data from hundreds of venues for matured events (i.e. those that have already taken place). Looking at a recent week’s sales, we saw a 52% drop in tickets sold, 53% drop in income and 27% drop in performances compared to the equivalent week two years earlier (w/c 7/10/19 and w/c 11/10/21, including 343 venues across England1).

Slow sales at this point are particularly concerning because, as we can see from Audience Finder, by early November 2019 (2/11/19, to be precise) 57% of panto tickets that would be sold that year had already been sold (and 56% of Christmas Shows more broadly). Even if confidence levels rise later (which we may doubt, given the lack of movement in willingness to attend throughout 2021), there is a considerable sales shortfall to make up. Indeed, only 6% of CPM respondents said that they had booked for panto already (although typically, of those who could remember, 44% said that they would book for panto 4 or more months in advance).

Implications

This expected drop in panto sales, especially among older groups, also reflects a trend seen before COVID (although for different reasons). Overall panto sales in Audience Finder venues saw a 7% drop between 2016/17 and 2018/19, with the single greatest drop across that period (of 19%) for a population group that is typically made up of ‘middle-engaged’ older audiences, the Audience Spectrum group Home & Heritage.

This suggests that not only do weaker panto sales this year threaten venues in the short-term (at a point where they are particularly stretched), there is a longer-term risk that it accelerates a pre-COVID trend which was already a threat to venues’ festive sales. Venues may need to rethink the festive formula in response to these changes.

Appendix 1 – About Audience Finder and the Cultural Participation Monitor

Audience Finder Data Tools:

The Audience Agency's national audience data and development programme that enables organisations to share, compare and apply insight. Built on a world-best arts, culture and heritage dataset, Audience Finder is the UK’s leading audience insight service. Audience Finder provides tools for collecting and analysing data with a standardised approach that builds a clear picture of audiences locally and nationally. The Audience Finder Service, from The Audience Agency, is supported using public funding by the National Lottery, through Arts Council England, Creative Scotland and the Arts Council of Wales.

Cultural Participation Monitor:

The COVID-19 Participation Monitor is a major population research study that is part of a national research programme led by the Centre for Cultural Value in collaboration with the Creative Industries Policy and Evidence Centre and The Audience Agency. The project is funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) through UK Research and Innovation’s COVID-19 rapid rolling call. The monitor covers the whole population, meaning that these findings provide a wider view than — and helpful context for — research focused purely on current users.